Price Projections of Feedstocks for Biofuels and Biopower in the U.S.

a b s t r a c t
The economic availability of biomass resources is a critical component in evaluating the commercial
viability of biofuels. To evaluate projected farmgate prices and grower payments needed to procure 295
million dry Mg (325 million dry tons) of biomass in the U.S. by 2022, this research employs POLYSYS, an
economic model of the U.S. agriculture sector. A price-run simulation suggests that a farmgate price of
$58.42 Mg1 ($53.00 dry ton1) is needed to procure this supply, while a demand-run simulation
suggests that prices of $34.56 and $71.61 Mg1 ($30.00 and $62.00 dry ton1) in are needed in 2012
and 2022, respectively, to procure the same supply, under baseline yield assumptions. Grower
payments are reported as farmgate price minus resource-specific harvest costs.
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