The Target Image Energy Model

The Targets IMage Energy Regional simulation model, TIMER, is described in detail. This model was developed and used in close connection with the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) 2.2. The system-dynamics TIMER model simulates the global energy system at an intermediate level of aggregation. The model can be used on a stand-alone basis or integrated within the framework of the integrated assessment model IMAGE 2.2. The model simulates the world on the basis of 17 regions. The main objectives of TIMER are to analyse the long-term dynamics of energy conservation and the transition to non-fossil fuels within an integrated modelling framework, and explore long-term trends for energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Important components of the various submodels are: price-driven fuel and technology substitution processes, cost decrease as a consequence of accumulated production (?learning-by-doing?), resource depletion as a function of cumulated use (long-term supply cost curves) and price-driven fuel trade. The first chapter gives a brief overview of the model objective, set-up and calibration method. In subsequent chapters, the various submodels are discussed, with the introduction of introduciconcepts, equations, input assumptions and calibration results. Chapter 3 deals with the Energy Demand submodel, Chapter 4 with the Electric Power Generation submodel, and Chapters 5 and 6 with the Fuel Supply submodels. Chapter 7 describes fuel trade and technology transfer modelling; Chapter 8, the Emissions submodel. In the last chapter, a few generic concepts are discussed in some detail to improve the user?s understanding of the model. The TIMER-model has played a role in the following: the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the European AirClim-project, the construction of global mitigation scenarios, and the Policy Options for CO2 Emission Mitigation in China project.