model

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) is a unique, dual-university research program. With research centers at the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University and the Center for National Food and Agricultural Policy (CNFAP) at the University of Missouri-Columbia, FAPRI uses comprehensive data and computer modeling systems to analyze the complex economic interrelationships of the food and agriculture industry.

FAPRI Models:

• Crop Insurance: The FAPRI Crop Insurance Model examines and projects the coverage, usage, performance, and expenditures for the U.S. crop insurance program.
• Dairy: The FAPRI International Dairy Model examines and projects the area, production, usage, stocks, prices, and trade for fluid milk, butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, and whole milk powder for several countries and regions of the world.
• Ethanol: The FAPRI/CARD International Ethanol Model examines and projects the production, use, stocks, prices, and trade for ethanol for several countries and regions of the world.
• Grains: The FAPRI International Grains Model examines and projects the area, production, usage, stocks, prices, and trade for wheat, corn, barley, and sorghum for several countries and regions of the world.
• Livestock: The FAPRI International Livestock Model examines and projects the area, production, usage, stocks, prices, and trade for beef and veal, pork, and poultry meat for several countries and regions of the world.
• Oilseeds: The FAPRI International Oilseeds Model examines and projects the area, production, usage, stocks, prices, and trade in the soybean, rapeseed, sunflower seed, palm, and peanut complexes for several countries and regions of the world.
• Sugar: The FAPRI International Sugar Model examines and projects the area, production, usage, stocks, prices, and trade for sugar for several countries and regions of the world.

A global energy crop productivity model that provides geospatially explicit quantitative details on biomass
potential and factors affecting sustainability would be useful, but does not exist now. This study describes a
modeling platform capable of meeting many challenges associated with global-scale agro-ecosystem modeling.
We designed an analytical framework for bioenergy crops consisting of six major components: (i) standardized
natural resources datasets, (ii) global field-trial data and crop management practices, (iii) simulation units and
management scenarios, (iv) model calibration and validation, (v) high-performance computing (HPC) simulation,
and (vi) simulation output processing and analysis. The HPC-Environmental Policy Integrated Climate
(HPC-EPIC) model simulated a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), estimating feedstock
production potentials and effects across the globe. This modeling platform can assess soil C sequestration,
net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, nonpoint source pollution (e.g., nutrient and pesticide loss), and energy
exchange with the atmosphere. It can be expanded to include additional bioenergy crops (e.g., miscanthus,
energy cane, and agave) and food crops under different management scenarios. The platform and switchgrass
field-trial dataset are available to support global analysis of biomass feedstock production potential and corresponding
metrics of sustainability.

Vimmerstedt, L. J., Bush, B. W., Hsu, D. D., Inman, D. and Peterson, S. O. (2014), Maturation of biomass-to-biofuels conversion technology pathways for rapid expansion of biofuels production: a system dynamics perspective. Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref.. doi: 10.1002/bbb.1515
 
 
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In support of the national goals for biofuel use in the United States, numerous technologies have been developed that convert biomass to biofuels. Some of these biomass to biofuel conversion technology pathways are operating at commercial scales, while others are in earlier stages of development. The advancement of a new pathway toward commercialization involves various types of progress, including yield improvements, process engineering, and financial performance. Actions of private investors and public programs can accelerate the demonstration and deployment of new conversion technology pathways. These investors (both private and public) will pursue a range of pilot, demonstration, and pioneer scale biorefinery investments; the most cost-effective set of investments for advancing the maturity of any given biomass to biofuel conversion technology pathway is unknown. In some cases, whether or not the pathway itself will ultimately be technically and financially successful is also unknown. This report presents results from the Biomass Scenario Model—a system dynamics model of the biomass to biofuels system—that estimate effects of investments in biorefineries at different maturity levels and operational scales. The report discusses challenges in estimating effects of such investments and explores the interaction between this deployment investment and a volumetric production incentive. Model results show that investments in demonstration and deployment have a substantial growth impact on the development of the biofuels industry. Results also show that other conditions, such as accompanying incentives, have major impacts on the effectiveness of such investments. This report does not advocate for or against investments, incentives, or policies, but analyzes simulations of their effects.

Vimmerstedt, L. and Bush, B. "Effects of Deployment Investment on the Growth of the Biofuels Industry." Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (December). NREL/TP-6A20-60802

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Biomass Scenario Model Zotero References
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Biofuels are promoted in the United States through aggressive legislation as one part of an overall strategy to lessen dependence on imported energy as well as to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Meeting mandated volumetric targets has prompted substantial funding for biofuels research, much of it focused on producing ethanol and other fuel types from biomass feedstocks. A variety of incentive programs (including subsidies, fixed capital investment grants, loan guarantees, vehicle choice credits, and aggressive corporate average fuel economy standards)have been developed, but their short-and long-term ramifications are not well known. This paper describes the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model developed under the support of the U.S. Department of Energy as the result of a multi-year project at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The model represents multiple pathways leading to the production of fuel ethanol as well as advanced biofuels such as biomass-based gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and butanol). This paper details the BSM system dynamics architecture, the design of the supporting database infrastructure, the associated scenario libraries used in model runs, as well as key insights resulting from BSM simulations and analyses.

Biomass Scenario Model: Supplemental Tableau workbook for Christopher M Clark et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 025016 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025016 Growing a sustainable biofuels industry: economics, environmental considerations, and the role of the Conservation Reserve Program

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The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is promoting the development of ethanol from lignocellulosic feedstocks as an alternative to conventional petroleum-based transportation fuels. DOE funds both fundamental and applied research in this area and needs a method for predicting cost benefits of many research proposals. To that end, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has modeled many potential process designs and estimated the economics of each process during the last 20 years. This report is an update of the ongoing process design and economic analyses at NREL. We envision updating this process design report at regular intervals; the purpose being to ensure that the process design incorporates all new data from NREL research, DOE funded research and other sources, and that the equipment costs are reasonable and consistent with good engineering practice for plants of this type. For the non-research areas this means using equipment and process approaches as they are currently used in industrial applications. For the last report 1, published in 1999, NREL performed a complete review and update of the process design and economic model for the biomass-to-ethanol process utilizing co-current dilute acid prehydrolysis with simultaneous saccharification (enzymatic) and co-fermentation. The process design included the core technologies being researched by the DOE: prehydrolysis, simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation, and cellulase enzyme production. In addition, all ancillary areas feed handling, product recovery and purification, wastewater treatment (WWT), lignin combustor and boiler-turbogenerator and utilities were included. NREL engaged Delta-T Corporation (Delta-T) to assist in the process design evaluation, the process equipment costing, and overall plant integration. The process design and costing for the lignin combustor and boiler turbogenerator was reviewed by Reaction Engineering Inc.

A new addition to the growing biofuels resources list at AgMRC is a cellulosic ethanol feasibility template developed by agricultural economists at Oklahoma State University (OSU). The purpose of the spreadsheet-based template is to give users the opportunity to assess the economics of a commercial-scale plant using enzymatic hydrolysis methods to process cellulosic materials into ethanol. The OSU Cellulosic Ethanol Feasibility Template can be downloaded and modified by the user to mimic the basic operating parameters of a proposed ethanol plant under a variety of production conditions.

PEATSim (Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulation) is a dynamic, partial equilibrium, mathematical-based model that enables users to reach analytical solutions to problems, given a set of parameters, data, and initial
conditions. This theoretical tool developed by ERS incorporates a wide range of domestic and border policies that enables it to estimate the market and trade effects of policy changes on agricultural markets. PEATSim captures
the economic behavior of agricultural producers, consumers, and markets in a global framework. It includes variables for production of crops and livestock activities, consumption, exports, imports, stocks, world prices, and domestic producer and consumer prices.

The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 established specific targets for the production of biofuel in the United States. Until advanced technologies become commercially viable, meeting these targets will increase demand for traditional agricultural commodities used to produce ethanol, resulting in land-use, production, and price changes throughout the farm sector. This report summarizes the estimated effects of meeting the EISA targets for 2015 on regional agricultural production and the environment. Meeting EISA targets for ethanol production is estimated to expand U.S. cropped acreage by nearly 5 million acres by 2015, an increase of 1.6 percent over what would otherwise be expected. Much of the growth comes from corn acreage, which increases by 3.5 percent over baseline projections. Water quality and soil carbon will also be affected, in some cases by greater percentages than suggested by changes in the amount of cropped land. The economic and environmental implications of displacing a portion of corn ethanol production with ethanol produced from crop residues are also estimated.