This study is a statistical analysis to estimate the significance of factors that influence the volume of E85 sales to the general public in Minnesota from 1997 to 2006.
Estimates of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are used extensively in transportation planning for allocating resources, estimating vehicle emissions, computing energy consumption, and assessing traffic impact. The estimates used in these applications usually come from different sources. For an objective comparison of VMT estimates from different methods, the principles and assumptions supporting the methods and the potential sources of error associated with the methods must be clearly understood. Methods of estimating VMT, including those used by the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT), are reviewed. Also presented is a comparison of statewide VMT estimates in Indiana from INDOT's traffic count-based method and a non-traffic-data cross-classification VMT estimation model developed for INDOT. The cross-classification model is an independent source of statewide VMT estimates in Indiana to supplement INDOT's traffic count-based estimates. The results of the comparison indicate that INDOT's traffic count-based estimates can be 10 to 20 percent higher than the estimates from the cross-classification VMT estimation model.
Enhanced environmental quality, fuel security, and economic development along with reduced prices of ethanol-gasoline blends are often used as justifications for the U.S. federal excise tax exemption on ethanol fuels. However, the possible effect of increased overall consumption of fuel in response to lower total price, mitigating the environmental and fuel security benefits, are generally not considered. Taking this price response into account, the optimal U.S. ethanol subsidy is derived. Estimated values of the optimal subsidy reveal the subsidy’s environmental and security benefits are questionable. However, positive environmental and security benefits from the ethanol tax-exemption subsidy may be obtained if the subsidy is combined with an increase in the excise tax on gasoline.
In 1997, eight E85 (85% ethanol; 15% gasoline) fuel pumps were installed at separate retail fuel stations in Minnesota to provide high-blend ethanol fuel to flexible fuel vehicle (FFV) owners. FFVs capable of utilizing gasoline, E85, or any mixture of the two, were beginning to be mass produced by vehicle manufacturers and distributed through fleet and retail sales nationwide. These state-level E85 efforts were part of larger federal and state policies and programs promoting the use of alternative transportation fuels to displace traditional gasoline and diesel fuel, which continue today. By the end of 2006, there were approximately 300 E85 fuel station
locations and over 125,000 FFVs in Minnesota. The amount of E85 fuel being utilized in the state was estimated at approximately 18 million gallons annually